P.S. Quick note on your 2nd footnote. I think it's an over-simplification to say "code either works or it doesn't". Code can work but inefficiently, not scale or be portable, be insecure, unreliable and hard to read/maintain, etc. In other words, it's much more nuanced, and perhaps more similar to other domains than you think.
Yes. It was a bit of a simplification here. I wrote a little bit more on why I didn't think that even more powerful 'autonomous' coding agents don't spell the end for professional programmers, and indeed might even be a good thing
If coding becomes easier then many, many more people will create sites and apps. And until autonomous AI agents are able to consistently and completely (a very, very high bar) automate every task, this expansion will end up massively increasing demand for coders’ skills.
There are two ways this could happen. First, experienced coders will be able to use these tools far better and faster than non-experts. So even if each job is lower paid, professionals could be exponentially more efficient and complete many more tasks working with AI.
Second, even if most amateurs never take their projects beyond the level of AI’s capability, some will. Imagine a world where 95% of the code in the world is written by AI. If this results a 1,000x expansion in the number of apps and websites, then the 5% share ‘left’ to human coders is a market 50 times bigger than today. And given how few people can code today (and the high cost of working with them), it’s not unreasonable to imagine that with no barriers to entry we could see a 1,000,000-fold expansion in the volume of software projects. Just look at social media. Nearly 4 million videos are uploaded to YouTube each day. Yes, most are terrible and will never be watched. But a tiny minority are excellent, produced by the millions of people who now make their living as professional creators.
💡 Imagine your market got 1,000 times bigger, but AI did 95% of the tasks your people do today? Which tasks will be left for humans to do?
Fair point. Coders will probably need to move 'upstream' to stuff like AI integration, system architecture, creative problem-solving etc. And TBD whether there'll be a wider, more equitable distribution of work, or if it will concentrate earnings among a few top performers. Final thought, presumably we'll also need more moderation / oversight for ethical and security considerations for this Cambrian explosion of apps - part human, part AI automated.
Congrats on VisuAIse Futures - superb!
P.S. Quick note on your 2nd footnote. I think it's an over-simplification to say "code either works or it doesn't". Code can work but inefficiently, not scale or be portable, be insecure, unreliable and hard to read/maintain, etc. In other words, it's much more nuanced, and perhaps more similar to other domains than you think.
Yes. It was a bit of a simplification here. I wrote a little bit more on why I didn't think that even more powerful 'autonomous' coding agents don't spell the end for professional programmers, and indeed might even be a good thing
https://thefuturenormal.substack.com/i/142356705/lower-prices-bigger-markets
The relevant section:
If coding becomes easier then many, many more people will create sites and apps. And until autonomous AI agents are able to consistently and completely (a very, very high bar) automate every task, this expansion will end up massively increasing demand for coders’ skills.
There are two ways this could happen. First, experienced coders will be able to use these tools far better and faster than non-experts. So even if each job is lower paid, professionals could be exponentially more efficient and complete many more tasks working with AI.
Second, even if most amateurs never take their projects beyond the level of AI’s capability, some will. Imagine a world where 95% of the code in the world is written by AI. If this results a 1,000x expansion in the number of apps and websites, then the 5% share ‘left’ to human coders is a market 50 times bigger than today. And given how few people can code today (and the high cost of working with them), it’s not unreasonable to imagine that with no barriers to entry we could see a 1,000,000-fold expansion in the volume of software projects. Just look at social media. Nearly 4 million videos are uploaded to YouTube each day. Yes, most are terrible and will never be watched. But a tiny minority are excellent, produced by the millions of people who now make their living as professional creators.
💡 Imagine your market got 1,000 times bigger, but AI did 95% of the tasks your people do today? Which tasks will be left for humans to do?
Fair point. Coders will probably need to move 'upstream' to stuff like AI integration, system architecture, creative problem-solving etc. And TBD whether there'll be a wider, more equitable distribution of work, or if it will concentrate earnings among a few top performers. Final thought, presumably we'll also need more moderation / oversight for ethical and security considerations for this Cambrian explosion of apps - part human, part AI automated.