⏩ Recycled denim; autonomous cargo drones; AI for innovators (and NASA); the end of budgeting?
Future Normal: Fast Forward #39
Disruption might just be the most overused word in innovation.
But this week’s glimpses of the future normal are truly disruptive. Not in the theoretical sense, as coined by Clayton Christensen, but because they represent genuine social and behavioral disruption.
Fully circular clothing; waste-free packaging; guilt-free deliveries; the automation of high-wage work and the restructuring of the working week; algorithmic relationships, and more. These are phenomena that will profoundly change how we live in both direct and indirect ways.
That’s not to say everything will change overnight.
These are very early signals – Pangaia is releasing a minuscule 20 jackets. Electric cargo drones are still unproven beyond their prototypes. The four-day work week trial might have been the world’s largest to date, but it took place at just 61 companies!
As the final story about IKEA’s scrapping of annual budgets reminds us – we live in a VUCA world. Volatile, uncertain, chaotic, ambiguous. Anyone who professes to know the future is lying.
But every one of these stories illustrates a bigger shift, captured by the ‘What if…” question that you absolutely should be thinking about. Even better, you should be talking about them with your team:
“What would happen to our organization if this occurs?”
“What are the threats?”
“What are the opportunities?”
Don’t have a team? No worries, now you can have that conversation with ChatGPT / Bing.
The Future Normal quickly becomes the New Normal… ;)
What if you could make new clothes from secondhand fibers? Pangaia released its RENU jacket, the world’s first denim jacket made entirely from Evrnu’s NuCycl – a virgin-quality fiber made from old or unused denim that is dissolved and respun.
What if … we could take inspiration from nature’s ‘packaging’? This juice bottle is made from potatoes and is fully biodegradable. The twist? The degradation only starts once its barrier is broken, by peeling it (just as you would an orange or banana). Biomimicry for the win.
What if … you didn’t have to feel guilty about e-commerce deliveries? These autonomous, electric drones are the size of delivery vans, don’t rely on gig workers and “can cross all of Europe in 12 hours or less at a fraction of the cost of airfreight”. Learn more about Inhuman Delivery in The Future Normal book.
What if … we shifted to a four-day working week? 56 out of the 61 companies who took part in the world’s largest trial have extended it, including 18 who have made it permanent. Perhaps moving to a four-day week might help resolve some of the debates over office / hybrid working, if companies trade more time together in-person for extra time off?
What if … you didn’t need to learn to code? Roblox is bringing text-to-code AI to its game development studio, while Github Copilot announced that an astonishing 46% of code is now written by AI, up from 27% in June 2022. Read more about how generative AI will unleash Augmented Creativity in The Future Normal.
What if … your next drug was designed by AI? Over 20 drugs created with the assistance of AI are now in clinical trials, opening up the possibility of faster, cheaper, more personalized pharmaceuticals.
What will AI-designed physical items look like? NASA’s unlikely-looking parts for its spaceships have been up to 40% lighter and able to outperform the human designed parts in simulations.
What if … there was an AI co-pilot for innovators? Board of Innovation published 20 ChatGPT use cases for innovation projects.
What if … your AI companion changed its personality? Replika recently updated its chatbot’s content filters, leaving users who had been steering the chatbots towards more R-rated content high and, well, dry. While you may not have much sympathy for these users, AI companions will be an increasingly important part of the social landscape – in The Future Normal we profile Woebot, a Stanford-developed chatbot that supports users’ mental health.
And…Bing went rogue (and is now restricted, before you try ;)
A meta aside to end on – extreme volatility has caused IKEA to ditch traditional budget forecasts, replacing them with scenario plans that allow managers to flex as circumstances dictate.
As someone who believes that trends are about provoking insights into a range of possible futures rather than forecasting ‘the future’ (emphasis on plural futures), this is a welcome move.
The innovations and ideas featured here are just a small slice of the trends featured in my upcoming book – The Future Normal: How We Will Live, Work & Thrive In The Coming Decade.
Pre-order your copy now.
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Thanks for reading,