Open AI's Sora text-to-video: 7 non-obvious questions & provocations
⏩ Future Normal: Fast Forward #98
By now, I’m sure most readers have seen Open AI’s new Sora model. Like you, I’ve been watching the demo videos with my jaw on the floor. “All videos on this page were generated directly by Sora without modification”
I’ve also been trying to get my head around exactly what it all means.
I won’t waste your time recapping everything you’ll have read elsewhere – yes, it will make disinformation easier; yes, we’re about to get an abundance of short videos now ‘everyone’s a creator’, etc.
These are true, but obvious.
As always, the purpose of this newsletter is to dig a little deeper. To bring you non-obvious insights; to help you think differently about where your future opportunities might lie.
With that in mind, here are some early wide-angle thoughts on what Sora means for our future normal.
What does it mean for the future of education and work? For culture? For people?
Prompt: A stylish woman walks down a Tokyo street filled with warm glowing neon and animated city signage. She wears a black leather jacket, a long red dress, and black boots, and carries a black purse. She wears sunglasses and red lipstick. She walks confidently and casually. The street is damp and reflective, creating a mirror effect of the colorful lights. Many pedestrians walk about.
1. The Wait Calculation is real.
GPT-4 sat alone for nearly a year, causing people to question if we were max-ing out. Well, strap back in, because we’re on an exponential curve again ;)
↳ This creates strange dynamics.
has written about the Wait Calculation – when tech is advancing so fast it can be better to wait to start a project. Because the later you start the greater tech capabilities you have, and so you will leapfrog those who started before you.2. Taste > Skills.
wrote a recent (pre-Sora!) newsletter about the importance of cultural education: ↳ “We’ve shifted from being skills-constrained to being imagination-constrained.”
↳ “Taste seems more scarce these days, and increasingly differentiating in the age of AI … We must expose people to unique and admirable demonstrations of taste and celebrate it.”
Prompt: The camera follows behind a white vintage SUV with a black roof rack as it speeds up a steep dirt road surrounded by pine trees on a steep mountain slope, dust kicks up from it’s tires, the sunlight shines on the SUV as it speeds along the dirt road, casting a warm glow over the scene. The dirt road curves gently into the distance, with no other cars or vehicles in sight. The trees on either side of the road are redwoods, with patches of greenery scattered throughout. The car is seen from the rear following the curve with ease, making it seem as if it is on a rugged drive through the rugged terrain. The dirt road itself is surrounded by steep hills and mountains, with a clear blue sky above with wispy clouds.
3. Skills will still matter, they’ll just be cheaper and more accessible.
I’ll make Sora videos. They’ll just be pretty average. And how easy will it be for me control exactly what I create.
↳ But the real unlock will be that I’ll be able to work with incredible (pro) editors for a fraction of the cost of today – because they can work 10x faster and cheaper.
4. Diversity or homogeneity?
↳ Will radical democratisation increase representation and see a flourishing of ‘new’ stories?
↳ Or will AI models flatten media like today’s near-ubiquitous neon-cyberpunk DALL-E style?
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5. Purpose regained?
↳ When you can do everything, then knowing why you should becomes critical.
↳ Side effect: community will be everything, as people follow tastemakers and stories they identify with.
6. Collaboration will be a superpower
↳ Obvious: everyone is now a creator.
↳ Non-obvious: it will be who you collaborate with that’s importance. Remix culture is about to get wild as entire networks riff off each other.
7. If text is soooo 2023, video is 2024, then will robots be 2025?
↳ My working assumption is if Open AI has nailed physics (as the videos suggest), it will also be able to use this to train physical robots. Get ready…
What do you think? Will Sora change everything? What have I missed?
Prompt: A beautiful homemade video showing the people of Lagos, Nigeria in the year 2056. Shot with a mobile phone camera.
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Thanks for reading,