⏩ Future Normal: Fast Forward #96
Empathetic chatbots; our AI superpowers; and meta insights on the future of trends.
Welcome, future thinkers.
It is the second word I want to stress. There are countless newsletters superficially reporting on ‘the future’ (i.e. sharing news stories of futuristic-sounding things).
We try to do something different here. Think.
This week, we’ve got two stories that show two competing futures for communication. Google’s medical chatbot AMIE was perceived to be more empathetic than human doctors. Another sacred cow gets slayed. Yet at the same time, Samsung’s Live Translation feature puts sci-fi level superpowers in people’s hands and unlocks new possibilities for human to human communication.
The stories will provoke you to ask, “will humans be redundant, or renewed?“
Both futures will be normal.
That’s hard for many professionals to handle. Yet it should actually be profoundly liberating.
For a deeper dive into why, check out the final section, where I share some meta trend insights from
’s annual META Trending Trends report.Thinking is important. Non-obvious thinking is even better. But ultimately, we’d all have nothing to think about if people didn’t act. Be one of those people.
As my Trend Analyst GPT suggested when I asked it to capture the essence of this week’s stories:
The future is a canvas, and each brushstroke of innovation adds colour and depth, gradually revealing a picture of what might be. Sometimes, the picture emerges quickly, with bold, decisive strokes. Other times, it's a slow, iterative process, where the full image only becomes clear over time. Our role is to be both artists and interpreters, imagining what could be while seeking meaning in what is emerging.
Note: I’ve cherry picked a small slice of its answer. Use GPTs to augment more than automate your creativity.
AMIE, Google’s empathetic medical chatbot
If you thought empathy will be humanity's saving grace, then I've got some bad news for you – AI is already more empathetic than humans. But that's not the whole story...
⚡️ Today’s Future
Google's AMIE (Articulate Medical Intelligence Explorer) medical chatbot can chat with patients to diagnose their conditions, taking clinical histories and asking follow up questions, just as doctors do. When pitted against certified primary care physicians in a simulated examination, AMIE not only gave better diagnoses, but it was also perceived as being significantly more empathetic.
💡 Tomorrow’s Normal
AI doomsayers will draw the obvious conclusion that AMIE represents an existential threat to jobs (despite being by all reports, a wonderful doctor...how's that for irony? ;) What will humans do, when AI chatbots are not just cheaper, but significantly better on every dimension than people?
🔮 Where next?
However, I'm not sure patients will rush to chatbot doctors immediately, no matter how good the results are (unless of course the alternative is no doctor, i.e. in countries with patchy healthcare systems).
Because unlike Google’s actors, real patients aren’t in a double blind study. People want the accountability and relatability of human clinicians, even if that's irrational. We welcome autopilots in planes (now); we haven't welcomed self-driving cars (yet).
The mental healthtech app Koko tested using GPT-3 to write supportive messages for its users. People preferred them – right up until they found out they were written by an AI. As its CEO said, “simulated empathy feels weird, empty.”
There will still be demand for human clinicians, however AI tools like AMIE will change our idea of what a ‘good’ doctor looks like. Brilliant assholes will no longer be tolerated; attentive empaths who are both humble enough to parrot AI’s diagnoses, yet emotionally attuned enough to know how to make people feel seen and heard will be in high demand.
3 questions for you to reflect on, no matter what industry you're in:
Where does AI perform better than humans? Check the non-obvious areas, like empathy.
How visible will AI be in your user experience? Is your sector rational, or irrational?
Expectations change gradually, then suddenly. What qualities and roles will you hire for when AI solutions break new ground?
Side note: I’m also delighted to share that I’m busy working with Natalia Talkowska on the next iteration of VisuAIse Futures: Healthcare, highlighting 5 people-first AI strategies that will transform the patient and clinician experience. Sign up to get the full report when it launches later this month.
Or if you’re working in healthcare and would like a sneak preview of what we’re working on, then DM me – we love feedback 😇
Samsung’s Live Translation
⚡️ Today’s Future
Samsung’s new AI-powered Galaxy S24 phones will feature Live Translation. This allows customers to make calls in a language they don’t speak and receive a live translation of the call both audibly and on the screen. At launch, 13 languages are available, and the translation happens on-device to eliminate privacy concerns. Its Chat Assist feature also helps you ‘translate’ your messages into different styles – from casual to formal, tailored for social media and more.
💡 Tomorrow’s Normal
I've been obsessed with real time translation ever since I did a workshop with Intel back in 2012 and heard about it from one of their engineers. While he was massively out on timing (he told me I’d be using it within 5 years), it looks like it’s finally just around the corner – with Microsoft, Google and Meta (and many other smaller startups) all rolling out AI-powered real time translation features.
🔮 Where next?
How will this impact the future normal of work? English might be the international language of business today, but anyone with a global workforce will be following this closely. Will real time translation massively increase the potential talent pool? What are the second-order implications of this? Increased international collaboration? A downward pressure on wages?
Where won’t this work? Certain tonal languages and contexts will be hard to translate. But the expectations that live translation creates will apply everywhere; what opportunities are there for you to bridge these gaps?
What would it mean to learn a language for ‘real’, and not use AI translations? I’ve written before that when language learning becomes unnecessary its value will paradoxically increase – just as today being able to ride a horse (a wholly ‘unnecessary’ skill) is a status symbol. In the future normal, you will learn a language not because you have to, but because you 𝘸𝘢𝘯𝘵 to.
What if this didn’t just break down language barrier, but generational and subcultural ones too? Chat Assist is a curious, but potentially massive feature. Imagine being able to translate bureaucratic legalese into accessible language? Or might this enable Gen X managers to communicate with their Gen Z reports? “That’d slap, no cap 🤌” (and yes, I cringed HARD that I had to use the Gen Z Whisperer GPT for that)
The META Trending Trends 2024
Many of you will have already seen the latest version of The META Trending Trends 2024, Matt Klein's brilliant analysis of all the trend reports. Most interesting for me wasn’t the actual trends (which are fairly mundane). It’s that all the best insights come in the 'introduction' – which runs to half of the article.
Understanding why you need or want to use trends is more important than the trends themselves.
Here are 5 other gems worth your attention:
The world moves slowly, if at all.
“Turns out you were better off guessing 50/50 than genuinely attempting to determine if a trend was published in 2018 or 2024.”
Action > Analysis.
“Data can only take you so far. Over-intellectualization is a curse. Instead: Make culture by partnering with and augmenting existing communities’ efforts. Foresight as Activism. Stop relying upon the old for answers to the new.”
Doing the work is the point.
“AI augmentation is a future requirement, but remain mindful of what’s outsourced. Going forward, we need more demanding journeys than we do mindless shortcuts. Shortcuts rarely yield fun, stories or lessons. If it's easy, it likely isn’t worthwhile.”
Questions are more powerful than answers.
“Foresight isn’t about prediction, and it’s more than preparation. It’s choice. Instead of predicting and being wrong, more valuable: imagine what you want to see. You can’t be wrong in that. After all, a good futurist provokes and admits that they don’t have the answer. Manifest. Possibility > Probability.”
Note: this is exactly why I stopped writing about trends in my year-end round up, and instead focused on asking 52 questions that will help you win in 2024.
Use the Overlooked Framework to explore a trend
Outside = What is an outsider’s POV or experience?
Other Side = What is the inverse or contradictory tension?
Dark Side = What is the malicious or distressing angle?
Back Side = What is the devious or stigmatized twist?
Quiet Side = What is not being talked about?
Long Side = What are the long-term implications or effects?
Inside = What is the internal or personal impact?
Old Side = What are the historical roots or deeper origins?
Somewhat ironically, I went straight to tweak my Trend Analyst GPT's custom instructions to include this framework ;)
What’s the future normal for YOUR organisation in 2024?
I have delivered 150+ actionable keynotes and workshops for clients in 30+ countries, with consistently exceptional feedback and repeat bookings.
As well as public conferences, I bring fresh and relevant perspectives on what’s next to leadership teams at the world’s biggest companies – such as J&J, Calvin Klein, HP, Mastercard, the Tata Group, and many more.
Here’s what clients say:
“My go-to speaker for future-gazing grounded in reality is always Henry … free from the BS and hype that's often prevalent in this space!” Founder, MAD/Fest
“Thank you for bringing out-of-the-ordinary ideas to this team of smart, motivated people.” VP, Executive Leadership Development, HP
”Constantly provoking, Henry helps us push the boundaries of our innovation thinking” SVP Digital Services, Mastercard
To discuss your next meeting or event then please reach out directly to Renee Strom or check out my speaking site.
Thanks for reading,