⏩ Fake meat fad? The circularity gap. Net Zero opportunities. And be the first to read my new book...
The Future Normal: Fast Forward #35
This week I’m bringing you a smaller number of stories, but ones that are definitely worth spending a little more time thinking about.
I’m also delighted to share with you the chance to be the very first to read my new book before it launches on 11 March at SXSW!
Let’s go…
Fake Meat Was Supposed to Save the World. It Became Just Another Fad
🔮 Future Normal // I have stood on many stages celebrating Impossible burgers as being at the forefront of the ‘Guilt-Free Indulgence’ trend – where people will embrace ethical and environmentally friendly substitutes which mean they don't have to give up problematic things they love, like burgers. It seems self-evident to me that future generations will look back on our industrialized agricultural system with horror at the pain it caused.
💡 So What? // Does this skeptical article mean all this is suddenly wrong? I don’t think so. Instead I’d argue this story is a powerful reminder of how to think about the future. The biggest opportunities lie in finding new ways to cater to fundamental human needs. For food these are the immediate needs – taste, health, convenience, and then the ‘bigger’ but more distant desires – to eat things that are sustainably and ethically produced. Plant-based meat promised the latter, but is struggling to deliver food that is healthy and affordable. Early adopters might accept some trade-offs, but to become the future normal challenger products need to do a better job of catering to the most important customer needs than the products they replace.
After nearly three years of collaboration with my co-author Rohit Bhargava of Non-Obvious Trends, our new book The Future Normal is off to print! In advance, we are opening up just 100 slots for early readers who want to be part of our Future Normal Launch Team.
If you are curious to dive deeper, want access to some special bonus content, videos, advance reader copies and some surprise gifts ... we'd love for you to fill out an application to join the Launch Team here >>
Circularity Gap report 2023: the world is going backwards
🔮 Future Normal // Moving from our current take-make-waste economy to a global circular one would enable us to fulfill people's needs with only 70% of the materials we currently use, and most crucially move human activity back within the safe limits of the planet, according to Circle Economy. Yet the world’s ‘circularity metric’ – how many materials are cycled back into the global economy after the end of their initial use – fell to 7.2% this year, down from 9.1% in 2018 and 8.6% in 2020. That means that more than 90% of materials are either wasted, lost or remain unavailable for reuse for years as they are locked into long-lasting stock such as buildings and machinery.
💡 So What? // The circularity metric is falling because the aggregate demand for materials is rising so rapidly. Something to bear in mind when we celebrate the world’s first circular and regenerative sneakers from Unless Collective. They might be awesome, but they represent <0.000001% of the 23 billion sneakers that are produced each year. We need large-scale change, and fast.
Net-zero is ‘economic opportunity of 21st century’
🔮 Future Normal // The U.K. government asked its former energy minister to review its Net Zero plans. His findings were clear – shifting to Net Zero would save the average household up to £6,000 by 2050 if current net-zero policies are implemented, and more ambitious policies could push this up to £14,000.
💡 So What? // Last year Oxford University reported that shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy could save the world as much as $12 trillion by 2050. Credit Suisse has forecast that the US’ Inflation Reduction Act will be the trigger that causes the climate economy to explode. More anecdotally, posts about climate-related job boards seem to be taking over my feed amid all the doom and gloom layoff announcements – check out the viral So you want to work in climate… sheet for a list of 40+ resources. Let’s hope we’re living through the dark before the dawn.
What Is The Future Normal For Your Business?
I give inspiring, actionable presentations that help your team spot and seize emerging opportunities. Get in touch if you'd like to discuss an upcoming event or project.
Thanks for reading,
We should be more critical and analytical with innovations at the first moment. Many times we accept them simply for the enthusiasm of the novelty but in the long run many prove to be fad or advertising stunts. It doesn't sound very stimulating for creativity, but the risk is that the ecosystem of innovators loses its credibility.