⏩ Apple's e-bike opportunity; resurrecting artists with AI; compostable clothing and more...
The Future Normal: Fast Forward #27
Thinking about the future is hard if you start from a blank page.
But it's much easier to ask "what if...", when that question is extended to "what if...we adapted [something that already exists]."
That's why looking at existing innovations, live in the marketplace today, is such a powerful tool to think about the future. As you read this week's stories, ask yourself the 'what if's below:
What if...Apple made an E-bike? And then for you – what nascent category could you accelerate?
What if...AI could mimic artists' creative output? Then ask yourself, as AI's creative capacities increase, how & where might you deploy it?
What if...you could compost your old clothes? Then, do your products have a circular or harmless end-of-life?
What if...brands simply stopped selling unsustainable products? Would you be bold enough to do the same?
What if...restaurants shifted to a community-first, subscription-based business model? Similarly, could you turn a pain point rooted in scarcity into an asset?
What If Apple Made an E-Bike?
🔮 Future Normal // Is Apple's long-rumored autonomous vehicle project a rare case of the tech giant backing the wrong horse (?!). Packed with insights, perhaps my favorite line of this must-read article is that the "personal car, even electrified, is an increasingly archaic idea — a hulking, overlarge, complicated piece of hardware ... They’re the landline of transportation. Forward-thinking cities and citizens are looking for ways to ditch them." Amen.
💡 So what? // Micromobility "rewires how people relate to time and space", something I've written about previously. The last time we radically extended people's capacity to move around (with cars), it transformed, well, nearly everything – giving rise to suburbia, malls, consumer culture, as well as pollution, congestion and road deaths. The fact that e-bikes are cleaner, safer and healthier makes them – along with other novel micromobility experiments – a tantalizing prospect.
Kim Jung Gi R.I.P. (and his AI-model is no substitute)
🔮 Future Normal // What will art, creativity and IP rights look like in the synthetic media era? Kim Jung Gi, aka Superani, was a South Korean illustrator who passed away recently. In the days after his death, a fan trained an AI model to replicate his artistic style and create new artworks. We've seen other deepfakes mimic Tom Cruise and Darth Vadar's voice, among others. Expect many more twists on this, both authorized and unauthorized, now the AI media genie is well and truly out of the bottle.
💡 So what? // There are some stories that I instantly know will make this newsletter, and this is one of them. The incredible advances in AI-generated art in recent months have been a regular feature here, and this highlights just one of the many uncomfortable legal and ethical questions we are now wrestling with.
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Old clothes are nearly impossible to recycle. What if you could throw them in a compost pile?
🔮 Future Normal // Fashion is a shockingly unsustainable industry, which is why the idea of 'compostable clothing' is so compelling. This article explores some of the brands searching to eliminate end-of-life clothing waste, and the challenges they face.
💡 So what? // If you're going to make bold claims like these, then make sure you can back them up or risk being exposed for greenwashing. The devil is in the details – you'll need biodegradable threads and non-toxic, plant-based dyes. Indeed, as the article notes, mass-scale textile recycling may be an easier route to a circular fashion economy than home-compostable clothing.
Polarn O. Pyret stops selling new PU and rubber boots; will only sell second-hand items in its stores
🔮 Future Normal // Swedish childrenswear brand Polarn O. Pyret, announced "We have stopped making traditional rainwear and wellies. The reason for this decision is our goal to only use sustainable fibres – a requirement that these products do not currently meet, due to the manufacturing process. This is an important step in our sustainability efforts, and while we are busy trying to find a new manufacturing process, you’ll still be able to buy traditional rainwear from our in-store second-hand departments, or use Shell clothing instead."
💡 So what? // This superficially 'irrational' move has echoes of Patagonia's famous "Don't Buy This Jacket" campaign (which cynics will observe led to a massive spike in sales). With customer expectations around sustainability ramping ever-higher and economic pressures causing interest in second hand – now re-branded as 'pre-loved' – to spike, if you sell high value long-lasting items then this could be an interesting and attention-grabbing move to imitate.
The Era of the Paywalled Restaurant Is Upon Us
🔮 Future Normal // The top-floor dining room at Casa Cruz, on Manhattan’s Upper East Side, is reserved for the 99 members of the restaurant’s “investor group of partners” who have paid between $250,000 and $500,000 to join. Dame, a hot fish-and-chip restaurant in the West Village has sold 11 tokens, worth $1,000, that enable holders to book a table once a week until the end of 2022, instead of having to wait weeks and months for a reservation.
💡 So what? // Wtf?! The optimist in me tries to feature innovations that point towards a cleaner, healthier or fairer future. The restaurants featured in the article don't, sadly. But you can still riff off these examples, which at their heart are about status, desirability, access and connections – all of which will remain powerful levers. But what if a restaurant embraced this model to stabilise its income and invest in recruiting from the local community? Or sourcing better quality produce from small scale producers? When you see an innovation that leaves an icky feeling, ask yourself – how could this be tweaked to create a positive impact?
The Future Normal is an exploration of how we will live, work and thrive in the coming decade. But nothing is pre-determined.
Can you share this and inspire someone to help create a cleaner, fairer, better future for us all?
Thanks for reading,
Henry