The Future Normal: What if blue-collar work went remote, too?
Stijn Fransen had every reason to be nervous. She was speaking with Wes, a renowned Dutch tattoo artist, about her upcoming ink session. They had agreed on the design, but that wasn’t what was making Stijn apprehensive. Her nerves were down to the fact that Wes wouldn’t physically be holding the tattoo needle. He would be in his studio, and a robotic arm hovering above Stijn’s arm would mimic his movements. ‘The Impossible Tattoo’ was a creative marketing stunt from T-Mobile Netherlands to promote the launch of its 5G network.
Over at the Circolo Hospital in Lombardy, Northern Italy, robots were being deployed in a very different context. The hospital was at the center of Europe’s first major coronavirus outbreak in early 2020 and, with a shortage of personal protective equipment and frontline healthcare workers falling ill, the region’s healthcare system was on the verge of collapse. Facing such challenges the Circolo Hospital was using Tommy, a robot that was able to monitor patients’ blood pressure and oxygen saturation, as well as enable patients to speak with human doctors remotely. Dr. Francesco Dentali, director of the hospital’s intensive care unit commented, “you have to explain to the patient the aim and function of the robot. The first reaction is not positive, especially for old patients. But if you explain your aim, the patient is happy because he or she can speak with the doctor.”
Dull, dirty and dangerous
Technologists have long spoken about the promise of robots taking over blue-collar jobs that are "dull, dirty or dangerous". Indeed, the military was one of the earliest and most aggressive adopters of remote technologies. For over a decade, US soldiers have operated drones (or ‘remotely piloted unmanned aerial vehicles’) from bases in New Mexico, killing thousands of suspected militant fighters in conflict zones thousands of miles away.
Now, we are witnessing a convergence and mainstreaming of multiple overlapping technologies that will make blue-collar remote work increasingly practical. 5G will reduce latency (the lag between input and response that can make video calling and gaming frustrating) to levels below human perception. Artificial intelligence is allowing robots to recognise their surroundings and become increasingly capable. Virtual and mixed realities are getting closer to enabling people to practically manipulate digital versions of reality.
Truck driving, a WFH job of the future?
Almost every article about the threat to jobs from autonomous technology references truck drivers. They have become the modern day loom weavers, facing an inevitable extinction. Which is why Einride’s job ad, for a remote truck operator, is so intriguing. Einride is a Swedish startup hoping to electrify and automate the haulage industry. However, its approach to autonomous vehicles is markedly different from the totally human-free visions of many of its competitors. Indeed, Robert Falck, the company’s founder, believes that maintaining some level of human operation is the secret to commercial success, despite Einride being the first company in the world to operate a regular autonomous, electric freight vehicle route on public roads.
In the summer of 2020, the company demonstrated its plan for a single driver to remotely control up to ten semi-autonomous Pod vehicles. Essentially, the concept is that the trucks will be operate autonomously most of the time, but when they encounter obstacles, they will call for a human to intervene and take over remotely. Einride forecasts that remotely operated trucks could reduce trucking industry fuel costs from 60 cents per mile to 18 cents per mile, and reduce US transportation costs by 30% if one operator were able to remotely control 10 trucks. And those jobs at risk? It notes that the US has already been experiencing a shortage of truck drivers. Pär Degerman, Einride's CTO has commented:
“Remote support is here to stay... not just here for deploying quickly, it will be here for the remainder of our lifetimes. We’ll always have human beings in the loop.”
Einride isn't the only company experimenting with teleoperation. At the Sandaozhuang Mine in China's Henan Province, miners from China Molybdenum use 5G to remotely control vehicles and machinery at the mine from inside an office. Japan’s advanced robot industry and tight labour market make it a natural home for these initiatives. The FamilyMart convenience chain has run tests with telexistence robots stacking shelves; MOS Burger installed OriHime robot servers at its outlets; similarly the non-profit Nippon Foundation deployed robot waiters in its office café that were operated remotely by people with disabilities.
These experiments hint at a future that’s quite different from the traditional ‘robots are coming for our jobs’ narrative. The idea of blue-collar remote work is superficially extremely attractive: who wouldn’t want people to be further removed from jobs that are dirty, dull and dangerous? But you shouldn’t view a Future Normal where blue-collar work is done remotely as any less transformative. In fact, this is a trend that should trigger some profound and massive questions about the future of work and society. For starters:
What if…
💸 Wages for dangerous or dirty blue-collar jobs are depressed, if the risk premium is removed?
👨🏿🦼 Whole new groups – from the elderly to those with disabilities – could enter the workforce, if their physical barriers were removed?
🚄 We see specialist local blue-collar hubs serving specific global markets, as we saw with Chinese manufacturing hubs?
🏙 Cities become even more unequal, if there was no need to physically accommodate or cater to lower-wage workers?
⛔️ It becomes economically and politically more feasible for ageing, rich countries to resist the physical immigration of younger workers that often take blue-collar jobs?
🏆 The same winner-take-all dynamics are applied to physical creative jobs –– such as tattoo artists or baristas –– that to date have been largely limited to serving those located nearby?
Big questions...
Do you have answers?
The Future Normal is our attempt to ask what the world could look like as we move past 2020.
We'd love your feedback, tips and advice. Will 5G be the trigger that reshapes the global workforce? Or will we remain in a technological trough of disappointment? Will blue-collar remote work be a net positive, or another structural shift that further increases inequality and social division? How can organisations and governments respond? What other second-order impacts will emerge if blue-collar remote work becomes a reality?
Let us know by replying to this email or, even better, comment on LinkedIn or Medium so that others can benefit from your insights!
Next week we'll be asking "What if we could make food out of thin air?".
See you then!
Henry & Rohit
Masters of the futurist power pose 😂