The Future Normal: What if we counted carbon like we counted calories? 🏭🐾
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What if...
We counted carbon like we counted calories?
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First, a reminder. You're getting this new, popup newsletter because you've been exploring the future with Henry or Rohit at TrendWatching or Non-Obvious Trends. This list is where we're asking what comes next by sharing early drafts of our new book project, The Future Normal. There's more at the bottom of this email, but if you prefer not to receive these emails, then just click here.
tl;dr. Too many of us struggle to know if we're doing the 'right thing' when it comes to the environment. Knowing the CO2 impact of the items we use will end this age of eco-ignorance. Meat-substitute food producer Quorn's CO2 labelling is one of many pioneering initiatives here.
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The Future Normal: Carbon Counting.
Do you know how many kilograms of carbon was emitted to make your sneakers? If you’re anything like us, then you probably fluctuate between guilt and ignorance. So you've offset the carbon emissions from some of your flights? Sure, you didn't understand too much of the detail but you’re grateful that the airline gave you the option. You might even know that the average American’s carbon footprint is 16 tons (against a global average of just four tons), but that still doesn’t mean much on a daily basis.
Your days of ignorance might be coming to an end if food producer Quorn has its way. The UK-based company manufactures meat-substitute products made from mycoprotein, and has partnered with the Carbon Trust to add carbon footprint data to its best-selling products such as Quorn Mince, Quorn Fishless Fingers and Quorn Vegan Nuggets. The brand aims to highlight the gap between its products and traditional meat-based ones. For example Quorn Mince has a footprint of 1.3kg CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent) per kilogram; by comparison UK beef mince’s footprint is 27kg CO2e per kilogram.
Peter Harrison, chief commercial officer of Quorn Foods, said “this is about giving people the information needed to make informed decisions about the food they eat and the effect it has on our planet’s climate – in the same way that nutrition information is clearly labelled to help inform decisions on health.” He adds, “currently no Recommended Daily Allowances exist for carbon emissions, but we hope that if other food brands follow suit, we will be able to make better comparisons in our shopping baskets.”
Control, data and storytelling
As humans, we love to feel in control. We strive to progress. Data is a powerful tool to help us feel empowered to take action: we count our steps, we track our sleep, we compare calorie counts. But the environment and the looming climate crisis is an area where we don’t feel informed or empowered. Take clothing for example: only one in ten of us feel well informed about the environmental and societal impacts of clothing manufacturing.
Quorn is not the first brand to attempt this. Back in 2007, the supermarket chain Tesco’s announced similar plans, only to drop the plan five years later citing costs and complexity. These hurdles have reduced as the volume of emission data has grown and become more accessible, and an entire industry has grown up around providing third party certifications.
Back to the opening question. Is 7.6 kg CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent) a lot or a little for a pair of sneakers? Today, only a handful of people can answer that question. Allbirds, the sustainable shoe pioneer who became the first producer to list the carbon footprint of its sneakers, helped people understand what this data means by comparing it to the industry average of 12.5 kg CO2e for a pair of sneakers. The brand also gave some additional context: 7.6 kg CO2e is similar to driving 19 miles in a car or running 5 loads of laundry. As Joey Zwillinger, cofounder of Allbirds said,
“We need something so simple that everyone could look at it, just like the calories on a food label.”
Data creates knowledge, and knowledge inspires action. As people become more familiar with carbon data, they will have a greater understanding of what ‘good’ and ‘bad’ amounts are, and shape their behavior accordingly.
Many of you will be resistant. You'll point out that the very concept of a carbon footprint was invented by the oil giant BP as a way of getting individuals to worry about their personal impacts rather than holding the dirtiest and industrial polluters to account. You are right. But this is where we take an optimistic view. Publicising this data is the first step in understanding that we can know this information.
If our carbon footprints can be counted, so can BP's. It's time for a judo move. In the Future Normal we, the guilty, can become the accusers!
Join us...
We're writing this book in public, and we'd love your input.
A reminder, for those of you who missed the launch email.
We – Henry Coutinho-Mason and Rohit Bhargava – are bringing together our 20+ years immersed in trends in order to try and make sense of this current moment. The Future Normal will give you a simple, accessible and deeply practical guide to the biggest opportunities of the next decade.
But we don't want to do this alone. We're connected to thousands of smart people working at the frontiers of literally every industry and market in the world. We know you know the instigators that will change our world for the better.
We'd love your feedback, tips and advice. Will carbon counting be the new calorie counting? Can we trust CO2 labels? Will we ever really be able to process this information meaningfully? Is it actually damaging the fight against global heating to ask people to take personal responsibility for their carbon footprints?
Let us know by replying to this email or, even better, comment on LinkedIn, Medium or Instagram so that others can benefit from your insights!
Next week, we'll be exploring the Future Normal: Green Prescriptions. See you then!
Henry & Rohit
Masters of the futurist power pose 😂