⏩ Future Normal: Fast Forward #17
DeepMind's data leadership; Chief Resilience Officers; the return of superstar cities; reformed Big Tobacco; can conservation payments avoid climate catastrophe?
It is hard to know the future impact of specific incidents at the moment they occur. Will DeepMind’s AlphaFold revolutionize our understanding of the natural world and change everything? We just don’t know, yet.
Given that uncertainty, why should you read newsletters like this one? It shouldn’t be just to learn about what’s happening. Instead, the power of learning about game-changing innovations lies in understanding how they will reshape the wider landscape: of business, culture and society.
This week’s stories all illustrate that point perfectly. They are newsworthy in their own right, but they also represent deeper shifts towards The Future Normal. Read about them. Reflect on how you will react to these shifts in your role. Let’s get to it…
DeepMind open-sources its AlphaFold Protein Structure Database
🔮 #FutureNormal // The idea that machine learning will give us outcomes that are faster, cheaper, and better is nothing new. Deep Mind's AlphaFold breakthrough is the latest stunning evidence of that. But beyond the massive breakthrough that this represents (I’ll leave others to write about much more compellingly about the science), it is the fact that DeepMind has open-sourced its data that should really excite everyone reading.
💡 So what? // The old world was about scarcity, exclusivity and control. In The Future Normal, value is dependent on leveraging data and networks; power will accrue to those who can attract talent and collaborators. DeepMind’s actions set expectations: now any similar organization that doesn’t offer the chance to have an impact on the whole of humanity will look short-sighted and selfisih by comparison. Okay, so not every research-driven organization will have Big Tech’s deep pockets standing behind it, but the precedent has been set.
Cities turn to Chief Resilience Officers as they tackle the Climate Crisis
🔮 #FutureNormal // These Chief Resilience Officers typically work across multiple departments, from energy to emergency response, in order to mitigate the impact of the now-inevitable climate crises that every city has to prepare for. Some cities are getting more specific: Athens recently hired its first Chief Heat officer, following in the footsteps of Miami.
💡 So what? // New job roles are a powerful - if lagging - indicator of macro trends. Before Google, there were no search engine optimisation specialists. Before Facebook, no social media managers. Will AlphaFold enable new protein designer jobs to emerge? More importantly, what new job categories will you create?
The Return of Superstar Cities
🔮 #FutureNormal // The experience of cities perfectly captures the fragmented nature of our post-pandemic moment. Urban areas are still seeing huge unemployment and vacant offices, while at the same time metro house prices and sales (from San Francisco to London) are holding up strongly.
💡 So what? // My take on this conflicting data: urban economies are in the middle of a huge transition that will be undoubtedly hugely painful for those on the wrong side of it. The purpose of cities as places to work has been eroded (not eliminated...there are always holdouts); yet their magnetism as places to live and to experience remains undimmed (again, not exclusively...Zoom towns are also a thing). Superstar cities will continue to thrive in The Future Normal. They will just look very different. As Richard Florida says, “It's no longer the central business district. It's the central socializing district."
Philip Morris’ CEO calls for ban on cigarettes within a decade
🔮 #FutureNormal // Another deeply intriguing piece. The leader of one of the world's big tobacco companies, calling for government action to ban its legacy product. It’s a move not dissimilar to automakers supporting restrictions on the manufacture and sale of petrol cars.
💡 So what? // It’s easy to be cynical here. Clearly Olczak feels able to call for this ban now the company has a 'cleaner' alternative to tobacco cigarettes. But just as with Alphafold, behind the attention-grabbing headline there is an important lesson here. Many companies, if not entire industries (from food to finance), are at odds with what people now expect. If that sounds like you and you’re not embracing a similarly bold pivot, then you risk a challenger coming along with a cleaner, fairer or healthier offering and destroying you. Create The Future Normal, don’t resist it.
Gabon Becomes First African Country to Get Paid for Forest Protection
🔮 #FutureNormal // Under the terms of the Central African Forest Initiative, Norway recently paid the first $17 million tranche of a $150 million deal focusing on promoting the health of the forests, in order to reduce net global emissions. The initiative hopes to make sustainable policy choices easier to pursue, by giving them both a moral and an economic basis.
💡 So what? // There’s an irony here: the CEO of Philip Morris is calling for government intervention, while governments are turning to market-based solutions to fight climate change. But these competing signals both point to the same truth: neither side can act in a vacuum. Both public and private stakeholders need to be actively involved in shaping The Future Normal. We will need to call on economics, policitics, technology and culture if we are to avoid the worst of the Climate Crisis.